NURİ ERKİN ÖÇER

Middle East Technical University, Aerospace Engineering Department, Türkiye

Assessment of Wind Forecasting over the Aegean Sea with WRF Simulations

Abstract

This study investigates the wind fields over much of the Aegean Sea using nested domains with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The highest-resolution innermost nest is centered on the Aliağa Gulf. The boundary and initial conditions for the WRF domains are obtained from Global Forecast System (GFS) data.

The accuracy of the WRF simulations is assessed by comparing the predictions with the satellite-derived observations from the ASCAT Metop scatterometer and the ground-based meteorological data. The preliminary findings reveal a domain-wide average wind speed of 8.73 m/s and direction of 315.77° from WRF, compared to 9.35 m/s and 335.37° from ASCAT, indicating deviations of 6.63% in magnitude and 5.84% in direction. The domain-wide root mean square error (RMSE) for the wind speed magnitude is 1.80 m/s, and for the wind direction is 25.86°.

Accounting for ASCAT’s documented overestimation of wind speed (+0.1 to +1.0 m/s) relative to in-situ measurements, the WRF prediction shows a promising accuracy and highlights the model’s proficiency in delivering high-resolution, accurate wind predictions over marine environments. It offers a significant potential for wind power forecasting as well as optimizing the micro-scale placement of offshore wind turbines and helps advance renewable energy development in the region.

In the full paper, the model parameters employed in WRF will be assessed in detail for a long range of simulations, and comparisons will be made with the met mast data.

Biography

Nuri Erkin Öçer holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from Ankara University and a master’s degree in Aerospace Engineering from Middle East Technical University (METU). He earned his PhD in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems from Eskişehir Technical University, focusing on satellite imagery analysis. Currently, he is pursuing a second doctoral degree in Aerospace Engineering at METU, where his research integrates remote sensing, wind measurement, and numerical modeling to enhance the optimization of offshore wind energy systems.