ALPEREN SARI

Modelling Efforts in Maritime Sector

Abstract

The maritime sector constitutes one of the most significant contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions and remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels owing to its substantial energy demands. In accordance with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), European Union policy frameworks, and the regulatory standards set forth by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), accelerating the maritime energy transition has grown considerably more pressing given the increasingly constrained timeframe available for decarbonization.

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC, maritime energy system research has increasingly integrated Reference Energy System (RES) modeling with energy decision support tools, facilitating the systematic evaluation of fuel consumption, emissions, and operational scenarios. Analytical tools such as LEAP, MARKAL/TIMES, and MATLAB/Simulink have been widely employed for this purpose.

Recent geopolitical tensions — most notably the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict of 2026 — have significantly heightened concerns regarding global energy security. Iran’s retaliatory closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted global trade and amplified oil market volatility. Consequently, Brent crude oil prices surged from approximately 60 USD per barrel at the outset of 2026 to nearly 120 USD per barrel, underscoring the pronounced interdependence between geopolitical risk and energy markets.

In response, scholarly focus has shifted from single-vessel studies toward fleet-level analyses of commercial shipping systems. This study develops RES-based models for a representative commercial fleet, with future work aimed at integrating decision support tools — including LEAP, MARKAL/TIMES, and AVL EMOS — to inform maritime energy transition strategies under uncertainty.

Biography

Alperen SARI-holds BSc from Turkish Naval Academy (2009)  and MSc (2019) from National Defence University Barbaros Naval Science and Engineering Institute in Mechanical Engineering, respectively. He is a PhD candidate at Marmara University and focusing the ship energy system analysis and modelling.