DEMET SUNA

Increasing Importance of Climate Change Impact Assessment for Future Energy System Planning: The Case of Austria

Abstract

Transitioning to low‑carbon energy systems requires a large expansion of weather‑dependent variable renewable energy systems such as wind, photovoltaics, and hydropower. Therefore, future power systems will become more variable and increasingly dependent on adequate system flexibility. At the same time, climate change introduces additional uncertainty, as future global warming levels (GWLs) depend on global mitigation efforts. Combined with increasing weather‑dependent generation, this creates a major challenge for robust long‑term energy system planning and requires explicit consideration of both uncertainties.

Austria is a particularly relevant case, given its already high renewable electricity share (≈88

% in 2023) and its target of full decarbonization by 2040. Meeting rising electricity demand from electrification requires substantial PV and wind expansion, further increasing climate sensitivity. Consequently, research on potential climate change impacts on future power systems is increasingly important.

In our research, we examine multiple dimensions of climate‑related impacts on future Austrian energy systems. We assess climate impacts on future electricity systems (e.g. 2040) using regionalized, NUTS3‑level climate data classified by GWLs (1°C–4°C). Long‑term projections of temperature, solar radiation, wind, and run‑of‑river hydropower quantify regional changes in electricity demand and renewable generation. We also evaluate power‑system‑relevant extremes, such as dark doldrums and heatwaves, by assessing their frequency and duration across GWLs to support resilient energy system planning.

Across 35 NUTS‑3 regions, PV shows minimal spatial variation. Run‑of‑river hydropower exhibits stronger regional differences, with GWL‑4 °C changes ranging from −4.3% to +13.8%. Wind shows the largest deviations, increasing by up to 46.8% at GWL‑4 °C, particularly in regions with historically low full‑load hours (FLH), while high‑FLH regions experience more moderate changes.

Biography

Demet Suna has been working as a Scientist at the AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Center for Energy, Competence Unit Integrated Energy Systems, since 2016. Her major research fields include sustainable energy systems, energy economics, and energy policy, with a particular focus on renewable energy technologies and security of supply.

She studied Electrical Engineering (Power Engineering and Electrical Drives) at Yildiz Technical University in Istanbul and at the Vienna University of Technology, where she also holds a PhD in Energy Economics.

Her current research focuses on integrated energy system modelling at national and local levels, assessing the impacts of climate change on energy systems, and developing strategies to achieve energy and carbon reduction targets while considering system resilience. She has contributed to numerous national and international research projects, including leading and conducting research activities.