SOCIO ECONOMIC PATHWAYS AND THEIR GUIDANCE TOWARDS A RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION DOMINATED MARKET
Global GDP projections for the 21st century have been updated recently. The newly (in 2016) developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives; show that in 2050 the loss in global GDP between SSP5 which means Taking the Highway (fossil fuels development) dominated growth) path vs. the Taking the Green Road (Sustainability) path which means a totally renewables originated energy sourcing is 2%. The global GDP is projected to be in the range of $200 to $300 trillion, which could mean a calculated loss of 4 to 6 trillion USD. When considering the total stock market capitalization of fossil fuel companies today is about $5 trillion and the GDP of 2016 was $75.6 trillion USD the need of a viability analysis on the economic sustainability of the fossils-fueled development emerges.
Further, if action is taken to tackle climate change, to keep temp. rise under 2C, most of the coal, oil and gas reserves will have stay in the ground. The technological development of renewables sourced power generation in meeting merchant market requirements is dizzy, backed by ground progress within the latest RES power supply auctions. Lithium and Vanadium Ion batteries and many other storage technologies provide promising progress, whereby settlement of further technological challenges is still needed. This paper addresses how the ‘Black Swan’ the Renewable Energy Sources stand and perform in the market on merchant basis and how their future is expected to evolve under free market conditions.
‘Fossil Fuel’s have to reposition their market standing and become raw materials, not fuels anymore. That’s where their future is heading towards! One day they may become ‘Fossil Cutes’.
Tamer Turna, was born in Stuttgart, Germany in 1967. He graduated from Stanford Graduate School of Business – Executive Education Program (2015), performed his Ph.D. (2001), M.Sc. (1992), UGRD (1990) education at the Technical University Yildiz with the major in mechanical engineering, whereas his education credentials have been accepted by the University of Toronto (2015). Since 02/2018 Dr. Turna provides executive consulting services to the board of directors of a renewable energy investment firm, where he developed and structured in a short period of time an investment portfolio of 2.3 GW in PVPP and WPP projects. Prior to joining TES, he worked as executive manager at companies (first to last) like Stromerzeugung u. Anlagenbau GmbH, Borusan Power Systems AS., CATERPILLAR Power Ventures Inc., MVV Energie AG., E.ON Energy Projects GmbH, E.ON Climate and Renewables Ltd., TES Ltd., Yildirim Energy Holding AS. His total experience of 27 years, covers a cumulative capacity of 97GW installed power, having served in design-build-project management-sales-service-develop-finance-invest-asset management-trade, with a business footprint of having chased projects in 52 countries. His is a father of two children.